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贵金属锭

第15期 | 2024年04月22日

近期的坏消息对金价来说似乎是利空出尽

近期的坏消息对金价来说似乎是利空出尽。尽管美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示,将维持利率在当前水平,以尽可能长时间地抑制通货膨胀,但金价上周仍以2395美元/盎司接近历史前高的价格收盘。美国国债收益率全线上升,短期收益率接近5%,美元升至五个月来的最高水平。在正常情况下,这对金价来说将是不利因素,但现在看来,黄金买家认为美联储观测的通胀滞后,且实际通胀率仍顽固地高于2%的目标。中东地区紧张局势不断升级的风险也支撑了金价上涨的趋势。

从需求方面来看,除中国需求相对强劲外,黄金似乎鲜有其他支持。今年第一季度,上海黄金交易所的黄金提货量达到522吨,是自2019年以来的最高水平,主要因为Au(T+D)合约(主要与投资相关)的交易量同比增长25%。中国的黄金ETF扭转了全球其他地区资金流出的趋势,连续四个月实现资金流入。这使得中国黄金ETF总持仓量达到约67吨(同比增长32%),这在一定程度上解释了为什么金价逆转了与收益率和美元的典型关系。不过金价相对强弱指标呈现超买迹象,因此短期内可能会难以进一步上涨。

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