The general environment remains supportive of Gold. Despite individual statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve claiming the opposite, a rate hike in September is unlikely. Market participants rate this presently with a probability of 20%, as the latest US inflation data disappointed and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes revealed no clear timetable. As a result the US-Dollar is weak, whose trade-weighted value has depreciated by 3% within a month. In the same period, Gold saw inverse gains of 1.3%. The solid demand for Gold is reflected in Germany by record highs in ETFs such as EUWAX Gold and XETRA Gold (together over 96 tons stock). Resistance lies at 1,360 $/oz. Support is found at 1,329 $/oz.
Silver weaker today after 2-months sideways movement
ETF holdings on all-time-high
Over six weeks Silver traded around the 20 $/oz mark, so that the current 30-day moving average stands as a result at 19.97 $/oz. This demonstrates that Silver could not benefit from the USD weakness in recent weeks in the same way as Gold and Oil. The Gold-Silver ratio increased to a two-month high above 70 and oil is with 50 $/barrel on an 8-weeks-high. Nevertheless, monetary policy and the macro-economic environment remain supportive, so that we expect in the medium term rising prices despite Silver’s consolidation this morning. ETF holdings recorded a new all-time-high last week with 17,500 tonnes. After falling below the technical support level at 19.21 $/oz, this mark now represents the new resistance level on the way up.
Highest level since March 2015
Positive trend despite recent profit-taking
Despite the summer month and the overall relatively quiet market, Platinum was able to reach a level above 1,195 $/oz in mid-August. This level was last seen in March 2015 and thus represents a 17-months high. Due to profit taking the metal depreciated since, but this does not detract from the continued positive trend. We currently trade at 1,110 $/oz with 1,100 $/oz being the first support level on the way down. Resistance lies at 1,150 $/oz. The sponge premium has not changed since last week. Industrial demand remains cautious. The wage negotiations in South Africa continue without major negative headlines. Even though the decision on salary adjustments has not yet been made, it appears that the discussions remain peaceful.
Palladium on the upswing
Temporarily reaching 14-month high
Even though Palladium had traded just below 750 $/oz in the second week of August, the level could not be defended as profit-taking pushed the price below 690 $/oz. The mark of 750 $/oz was last reached 14 months ago. The past week started rather quietly. On Thursday, the rates then jumped sustainably above the 700 $/oz mark again. Palladium receives tailwind by strong car sales figures out of China and the USA. If Palladium can hold above 725 $/oz, there is further room to climb higher. The premium for palladium sponge has not unchanged. Palladium ETFs saw larger outflows: According to a report by Bloomberg, stocks reduced by around 102,000 ounces since the beginning of this month and YTD by around 248,000 ounces.
Rhodium / Ruthenium / Iridium
Rhodium rises slightly, Ruthenium unchanged and Iridium still sought-after
Rhodium has gained slight momentum last week. Despite the holiday period, demand increased and the metal could detach from the psychological support level at 600 $/oz. Currently, we are trading around 625/645 $/oz and a quick turnaround is not perceptible. Also on low levels sellers use the opportunity to execute sales. Ruthenium has remained on the same level for months. Also in August, there were no changes so far. The same range remains in place. Iridium is the only metal in the group of minor PGMs which sees strong demand, coming mainly local industrial players and Asia. The situation remains problematic as availability will continue to be limited. As a result the price increases further and sellers are increasingly waiting for higher levels. We currently trade at 600 $/oz and it is no surprise that prices are likely to increase further.
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