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市场聚焦

  • Edition 7 - 11 March 2019

2019年铂金投资需求将平衡市场?

2019年前两个月全球铂金ETF流入达2013年以来最大数量。1月和2月全球ETF持仓量分别增加19.5万和22.2万盎司,仅次于2013年4月和5月首次推出南非ETF时的增仓量。

ETF的增仓规模表明机构投资者正在建立头寸。美国(+7万盎司),英国(+16.5万盎司)和南非(+16.7万盎司)大量买入。只有铂金的ETF持仓量大幅上升(两个月内增长18%)。钯ETF持仓量增加了1.7万盎司(+2%)。黄金价格表现优于铂金。2019年黄金ETF出现了一些流入(+130万盎司,+ 2%),白银ETF下跌500万盎司(- 1%)。对铂金的兴趣可能是基于相对价值的原因,因为铂金价格已经接近10年低点,并且对黄金和钯金的折价仍处于最低水平。投机性期货投资者追随价格动向,采取了相反的观点。NYMEX的净投机性期货头寸在2月初转负,原因是在价格下跌时建立了大量空头头寸。一旦机构投资者建立了ETF头寸,短期内不太可能发生太大变化,因此ETF 的大量增仓是否能够持续仍值得怀疑。

ETF买盘不太可能足够吸收今年生产的盈余金属,因为不算投资,铂金市场预计将有超过100万盎司的盈余。增加的铂金条和铂金币投资(可能为20-25万盎司)仍然不足以平衡市场。如果南非没有发生供应中断(如电力短缺、行业行动)的情况下,铂金价格可能继续承压。

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