市场报告

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贵金属锭

贵金属简讯

  • Edition 27 - 27 August 2018

交易商拥挤的做空交易?

贵金属期货交易商押注价格进一步下跌。黄金、白银和铂金非商业期货交易商自2001年以来首次同时净空这三种金属,这些金属的空头净头寸已达到创纪录的水平。

头寸情况与目前的熊市相吻合,铂金自2015年初以来下跌38%,白银较2016年高峰下跌29%,钯金比今年早些时候的高点低19%。黄金价格较2016年的价格高点低13%。由于金、银和钯均远高于自2015年以来的最低价,似乎有些过于看跌。

非商业交易商黄金期货净空头36.9万盎司,自2002年以来首次净空头,包括2120万盎司多头头寸和创纪录的2150多万盎司空头头寸。白银非商业期货交易商自2018年初开始净空头,净空头头寸1400万盎司,包括创纪录的4.81亿盎司空头头寸和4.67亿盎司多头头寸。铂金非商业期货交易商已连续九周净空头,并且净空头头寸达到创纪录的50万盎司,包括2百万盎司多头头寸和创纪录的250万盎司空头头寸。目前,钯金非商业期货交易商的净多头20.1万盎司,为2003年以来的第二低位,包括100万盎司空头头寸和120万盎司的多头头寸。

市场情绪甚至比2015年底更加低迷,当时价格出现反弹,因此空头拥挤交易很容易引发价格反弹。相对温和的美联储或者美国经济增长放缓将导致美元回落,大量空头头寸关闭可能刺激价格反弹。

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