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  • Edition 8 - 18 March 2019

铂钯比率能降低到多少?

铂钯价格比率在2月份跌至0.57,为历史最低水平。之前的低点是20011月达到的0.59,当时铂钯价格均达到高点。2000/01年和2018/19年之间有相似之处,但也有一些明显的差异。相似之处包括美国近10年的经济扩张、美联储暂停加息以及美国和欧洲的股价从历史高位回落。

2001年,全球钯金需求下降,价格下跌了60%。这是美国经济衰退和2000年钯金价格高企导致工业需求大幅下降的结果。2000/01年欧洲立法欧3排放要求,增加了汽车催化剂载荷。随着经济衰退和汽车销量不断增长,铂金需求持续上升,但铂金价格在2001年仍然下跌了25%。随后,随着欧洲柴油车占比的增加,汽车铂金需求相对于钯金上涨, 铂金价格跑赢钯金。

2000/01年和2018/19年之间的一个主要区别是中国的汽车销量在过去的10年中翻了一番。再加上美国的汽车销售从上次经济衰退后复苏、柴油车催化剂中使用的钯金数量增加以及欧洲柴油车占比的下降,导致钯金价格和需求表现优于铂金。即使中国汽车销售放缓,国6的出台也进一步提升了钯的使用量。

未来几年铂钯比率将继续走低,因为钯金市场依然紧张,汽车制造商将仍有大量需求。尽管已经出现重新启用铂金的大肆宣传,但即使铂钯替换确实发生,也需要一定的时间。如果欧洲经济衰退即将来临,钯金价格将暂时出现调整。毕竟欧洲现在是一个以钯金和汽油车为主的市场。

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