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贵金属锭

第16期 | 2024年04月29日

另类驱动助力黄金克服美债收益率上涨的不利因素

过去两年里,金价与其他金融产品之间最为明确的关系之一已经瓦解。自2000年左右以来,黄金与10年期美国国债收益率之间一直呈现出相对较强的负相关关系。这是因为黄金的非收益性质意味着,随着极低风险的美国政府债务支付的息票上升,持有黄金的机会成本也随之上升,购买兴趣下降。2024年迄今,由于美国劳动力和通胀数据强于预期,市场对降息的预期减弱,债券收益率因此上升。但与此同时黄金价格却屡创新高,特别是在最近一次回调前的一个月里表现尤为强劲。

黄金的价格驱动力正在从西方转向东方。金价的基本驱动因素会随时间推移而发生变化,目前美元和美国国债收益率已经退居次要地位。中国投资者和中国人民银行的强劲实物需求正推动黄金市场热度不断上升。中国是零售黄金需求最大的市场,房地产市场以及中国股市近年来未能产生明显的财富效应,可能已将更多投资者推向黄金。上海黄金交易所和上海期货交易所的黄金交易量激增就是这一点的有力证明。

相关性并不等于因果关系。金价上涨与美国国债收益率上涨同时发生,并不一定意味着国债收益率现在正推动金价上涨。只是目前来看,其他因素似乎正在压过收益率对金价的影响。储备资产多元化和全球地缘政治不稳定正在提升黄金作为硬资产的吸引力,尤其是在未来几年美国政府债务义务上升之际。

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