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贵金属锭

第17期 | 2024年05月06日

金价两个月内上涨20%后继续盘整

美联储在本次FOMC会议确认了市场对6月不加息的判断。周三的联邦公开市场委员会会议上,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔排除了6月加息的可能性,但他重申,鉴于2%的目标利率进展不足,他将优先考虑抑制通货膨胀。尽管美元仍然坚挺,但过去两周已有所下跌。同时会议结束后,年底前降息的概率逐步上升。

第一季度央行黄金购买量创纪录。全球央行增加了289.7吨黄金储备,创下了第一季度购买量的历史新高(来源:世界黄金协会)。不过,西方黄金ETF投资者,尤其是欧洲基金,仍然明显缺席黄金市场,这些黄金ETF基金在4月份从持仓中抛售了约30吨黄金。尽管黄金最近表现良好,但看起来高收益债券对机构投资者来说仍然更具吸引力。然而,随着欧洲央行降息前景的升温,这一趋势可能会出现逆转。

金价在两个月内上涨了20%后继续盘整。在4月23日当周,非商业性净多头期货仓位达到了约2030万盎司,与2023年持仓的最高水平相当,但当时黄金价格远低于当前水平。尽管投机仓位随着价格上涨而攀升,但仍远低于2020年至2022年的水平。这给投资者留下了加仓的空间。黄金近期的价格回调也意味着它不再超买。短期内,金价可能会继续盘整,但长期来看,价格上涨的潜力依然存在。

5G技术的需求增长可能会继续为银需求带来温和的长期上涨空间。银被用于半导体、消费电子、汽车电子和基础设施硬件,鉴于良好的信号覆盖需要更高密度的基础设施,这些领域都将从5G生态系统的普及中受益。2022年,5G移动设备的销量首次略微超过4G设备,占据了53%的市场份额,而4G设备占据45%。到2023年,这一差距进一步扩大,5G设备销量攀升至60%,而4G设备销量降至40%(来源:彭博)。几个新兴市场正在雄心勃勃地推进5G推广计划。例如,印度主要的电信运营商Reliance Jio和Bharti Airtel计划到2024年实现全国5G覆盖,此举可能会显著增强世界第二大人口国家的白银需求。银价继续跟随金价下跌。本周银价跌破27美元/盎司,跌幅甚至超过了金价。

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