Heraeus Precious Metals Forecast 2023: Gold remains in the focus of investors – Palladium will be under pressure

Hanau (Germany), 6th December 2022

  • Gold could be worth more in euros than ever before
  • Industrial demand for silver on the rise
  • Palladium will be under pressure
  • Iridium should have bottomed out

The price of gold could rise to a record high in euro terms next year, according to Heraeus Precious Metals, the world's largest recycler and trader of precious metals. "In times of the ongoing Ukraine war, high inflation and growing recession concerns, gold remains in the focus of many investors," said Henrik Marx, Head of Trading - Heraeus Precious Metals, at the presentation of the company’s annual precious metals forecast.

The price of gold will strongly depend on the development of the dollar. The Heraeus experts assume that the US Federal Reserve will slightly change its monetary policy in the course of 2023. After all, inflation is likely to continue to decline and a weakening US economy will become the focus of the monetary guardians. Should the Federal Reserve keep interest rates stable or even lower them, this could support the gold price. A record high for gold in euro terms is quite possible if the gold price reacts disproportionately positively to these signals compared to the dollar. Gold marked its previous high in March 2022 at around 1,870 euros per troy ounce. Traded in the US currency, Heraeus sees a range of 1,620 to 1,920 dollars per troy ounce.

In silver, a moderate increase in demand for smartphones should support the price. For 2023, Heraeus experts expect more sales of 5G-enabled devices, which should boost silver demand. In addition, demand for photovoltaics should continue to rise in 2023. In contrast, demand for silver jewelry should decline compared to the previous year. As mine production could increase gradually, the upward price potential for silver is limited. However, if the Federal Reserve changes its aggressive interest rate policy as expected, this should depress the dollar exchange rate and support the silver price, similar to gold. Heraeus expects a range between 17 and 25 dollars per troy ounce.

For the industrial platinum market, Heraeus expects a surplus. Primary production is expected to increase by ten percent in 2023. In contrast, secondary supply is expected to decline slightly. The recovery of platinum from spent automotive catalytic converters should also decline, as demand for used cars remains high as a result of the chip crisis. In the long term, however, the use of platinum in the hydrogen economy will increase as the number of PEM electrolyser installations rises. According to Heraeus, the range for platinum is between 800 and 1,150 dollars per troy ounce.

Heraeus experts are skeptical about palladium. The market should show a surplus next year. Demand in the automotive industry - with more than 80 percent the largest customer - should hardly change, as the recovering production of light vehicles will be offset by the loss of market share in combustion engines to battery-powered electric vehicles.

The still higher price of palladium compared to platinum will further accelerate the substitution of palladium by platinum. Demand in the electrical, chemical and dental sectors will also decline again. Since around 40 percent of the palladium supply comes from Russia, possible, albeit unlikely, sanctions against the country or its raw material exporters could lead to price risks. Heraeus puts the range at 1,300 to 2,250 dollars per troy ounce.

According to Heraeus, the outlook for rhodium, which is also very dependent on demand from the automotive industry, is also rather negative. As global demand is unlikely to change much, the recovery of primary supply in South Africa next year should be enough to turn the market from a slight deficit this year into a surplus. This development will weigh on the still historically very high price. At the same time, secondary supply is unlikely to change much. The rhodium price should again move in a high range between 9,000 and 15,500 dollars per troy ounce in 2023.

For ruthenium, the return to lower price levels should continue. The Heraeus experts see a price range between 400 and 650 dollars per troy ounce. The metal, which is mainly used in the electronics industry, should show a slight surplus in 2023. Although the market could be tight at the beginning of the year, the situation should improve as soon as the stocks accumulated in South Africa are processed and the price will tend to fall.

Iridium should have bottomed out. Demand should rise slightly in 2023 due to the increasing use of PEM electrolysers in the hydrogen industry. This trend should strengthen in the following years. At the same time, supply from South Africa, which accounts for around 80 percent of global iridium supply, is expected to increase only slightly. However, there are potential risks to production next year. South Africa could continue to experience power outages next year that would limit production. This could lead to further positive price momentum in the tight iridium market. The price of iridium is likely to range between 3700 and 6500 dollars per troy ounce.

The Heraeus Precious Metals Forecast at a glance:Precious metal price ranges per ounce

Precious Metal Range per ounce
Gold 1,620 to 1,920 dollars
Silver 17 to 25 dollars
Platinum 800 to 1,150 dollars
Palladium 1,300 to 2,250 dollars
Rhodium 9,000 to 15,500 dollars
Ruthenium 400 to 650 dollars
Iridium 3,700 to 6,500 dollars
Heraeus Precious Metals assumes that Gold remains in the focus of investors - Upside for Iridium as bottom has been reached.
Heraeus Precious Metals assumes that Gold remains in the focus of investors - Upside for Iridium as bottom has been reached.


The Heraeus Precious Forecast 2023 has been prepared using information obtained from sources that Heraeus and SFA (Oxford) Ltd believe to be reliable but which they have not independently verified. Although the Heraeus Precious Forecast 2023 was prepared with the utmost care, Heraeus and SFA (Oxford) Ltd accept no responsibility or liability for the accuracy, completeness and current relevance of the information provided in the Forecast.

Moreover, any projections regarding precious metals, including any forward-looking statements, set out in this Forecast are based on the expectations and assumptions of Heraeus and SFA (Oxford) Ltd as of the date of this Forecast. Actual results may significantly differ from this Forecast due to risks, uncertainties and various other factors that are outside the control of Heraeus and SFA (Oxford) Ltd.

Therefore, there is no assurance that any forward-looking statements will materialize. Heraeus and SFA (Oxford) Ltd do not undertake to update any of the forward-looking statements to reflect developments which differ from those anticipated.

About Heraeus Precious Metals

Heraeus Precious Metals is globally leading in the precious metals industry. The company is part of the Heraeus Group and covers the value chain from trading to precious metals products to recycling. In addition to gold and silver, it also has extensive expertise in all platinum group metals.

With 2,600 employees at 15 sites worldwide, Heraeus Precious Metals offers a broad portfolio of products that are essential for many industries such as the automotive, chemicals, semiconductor, pharmaceutical, hydrogen and jewelry industry.

By 2025 Heraeus Precious Metals will be the first company in the industry that operates carbon neutral.

About Heraeus

The Heraeus Group is a broadly diversified and globally leading family-owned technology company, headquartered in Hanau, Germany. The company’s roots go back to a family pharmacy started in 1660. Today, the Heraeus group includes businesses in the environmental, electronics, health and industrial applications sectors. Customers benefit from innovative technologies and solutions based on broad materials expertise and technological leadership.

In the 2021 financial year, the FORTUNE Global 500 listed group generated revenues of €29.5 billion (US $34.9 billion*) with approximately 16,200 employees in 40 countries. Heraeus is one of the top 10 family-owned companies in Germany and holds a leading position in its global markets.