Market Reports

Learn more about all important trends in the precious metals markets in our market reports on a regular basis.


Heraeus Precious Appraisal

  • Edition 4 - 18 February 2019

Visible palladium stocks have fallen by 75%

This year palladium ETF holdings have started to rise in the US (+10 koz) and South Africa (+28 koz). If investors continue to add to their ETF holdings then this will tighten the palladium market further. Most primary producers’ output is sponge for industrial users, not bars needed to back physical ETFs. A rapid increase in ETF demand could further tighten the supply of available metal, pushing up lease rates and the palladium price.

Physical palladium ETF holdings have fallen by 2.2 moz, from a peak of 2.9 moz in 2014 to 0.7 moz at the end of 2018, so visible stocks have shrunk significantly. Given the substantial market deficits of the last few years, a large proportion of this metal is likely to have been used for industrial purposes. The high lease rates over the last 18 months indicate that there is little metal available to be leased out.

However, there are other sources of stock. Nornickel has created a palladium fund with metal acquired from thirdparty sources that has delivered over 1 moz to its customers on top of its mine production in 2017-2018.

This document is being supplied to the recipient only, on the basis that the recipient is reasonably believed to be a professional market participant in the precious metals market. It is directed exclusively at entrepreneurs and especially not intended for the use of consumers.

The material contained in this document has no regard to the specific investment objectives, fi nancial situation or particular need of any specifi c recipient or organisation. It is not provided as part of a contractual relationship. It is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or as advice on the merits of making any investment.

This report has been compiled using information obtained from sources that Heraeus and SFA (Oxford) Ltd (“SFA”) believe to be reliable but which they have not independently verified. Further, the analysis and opinions set out in this document, including any forward-looking statements, constitute a judgment as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice.

There is no assurance that any forward-looking statements will materialize. Therefore, neither SFA nor Heraeus warrants the accuracy and completeness of the data and analysis contained in this document.

Heraeus and SFA assume no liability for any losses or damages of whatsoever kind, resulting from whatever cause, through the use of or reliance on any information contained in this document. However, in so far as a liability claim exists under German law, Heraeus and SFA shall have unlimited liability for willful or grossly negligent breach of duty.

Unless expressly permitted by law, no part of this document may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without written permission of Heraeus. Heraeus specifi cally prohibits the redistribution of this document, via the internet or otherwise, to non-professional or private investors and neither Heraeus nor SFA accepts any liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in reliance on this document.

to top